Affected by the spread of overseas public health incidents and global concerns about drug shortages, the production and export of APIs have become the focus of market attention. On April 17, the vitamin concept stocks of the A-share market strengthened across the board. Among them, the daily limit of North China Pharmaceutical and Garden Bio, Guangji Pharmaceutical, Jindawei and Brother Technology all rose more than 5%. Analysts believe that the increase in the price of vitamin varieties is mainly due to the supply shortage pattern caused by the global public health event environment, and there is still room for short-term price upwards.
Currently, domestic listed companies related to the concept of vitamins include Xinhecheng, Zhejiang Medicine, Jindawei, Garden Biology, Brother Technology, Northeast Pharmaceutical, Guangji Pharmaceutical, North China Pharmaceutical, and Yifan Pharmaceutical. Xinhecheng ’s previously announced first-quarter results forecast for 2020 shows that the company expects to achieve a net profit of 868 million yuan to 970 million yuan in the first quarter, a year-on-year increase of 70% to 90%. Xinhecheng said that during the reporting period, the sales price and quantity of vitamin A, vitamin E, biotin and other products increased over the same period of the previous year, and the company's net profit increased year-on-year.
Jindawei expects the company to achieve a net profit of 170 million to 236 million yuan in the first quarter of 2020, a year-on-year increase of 30% to 80%. Jindawei said that it was mainly affected by the price increase of vitamins and coenzyme Q10 raw material products, which led to a year-on-year increase in the company's net profit.
The quarterly report is expected to rise, and there are Yifan Pharmaceutical and Brother Technology. On April 14, Yifan Pharmaceutical disclosed its forecast for the first quarter of 2020. The company expects a profit range of 280 million to 340 million yuan, an increase of 90% to 130% from the same period in 2019. Yifan Pharmaceutical said that due to the major increase in vitamin products during the reporting period compared with the same period last year, the company's first-quarter net profit increased significantly over the same period. On the same day, Brother Technology issued a performance forecast that the company's product gross profit margin was improved due to the increase in sales prices of related vitamin products. The company expects net profit in the first quarter of 2020 to be 18 million yuan to 23.4 million yuan, a year-on-year loss, and a loss of 25.42 million yuan in the same period last year .
Ping An Securities Research Report shows that China is the largest country in vitamin production. Feed additives are the main application areas of vitamins, accounting for about 70%, the remaining 20% are used in medicine and cosmetics, and 10% are used in food and beverages. In 2019, China's vitamin output was about 349,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, accounting for 77.0% of global output.
Meanwhile, most of China's vitamin demand comes from exports. In 2019, China exported 269,000 tons of vitamins, with an export rate of 77.1%. Among the export varieties, VC has the highest proportion, with the number accounting for 54.3%, followed by VE with 24.2%, and the total of the two accounts for 78.5%.
Recently affected by the spread of global public health events, the prices of many vitamin varieties such as VA, VE, VB1, biotin, and VK3 have risen. The agency believes that the main reason is the supply shortage pattern caused by the global public health event environment. Considering that there are still uncertainties in the current start of vitamin overseas market, the pressure on the supply side of the vitamin industry is difficult to change in the short term; and the demand side is expected to continue to drive the demand for feed and vitamins as the domestic pig breeding industry recovers. development of.
According to Zhang Lichao, a senior researcher at Guosen Securities, from the supply side, vitamin manufacturers in Germany and the Netherlands suffered a direct impact on production capacity due to public health incidents, and blocked intermediate links such as logistics and transportation, which led to a substantial reduction in inventory of some traders and the stage of spot supply. Sex is tightening; from the demand side, vitamin feed is one of the must-have consumer products in the aquaculture industry. The feed demand is rigid and will not be delayed or delayed due to public health events. To a certain extent, panic replenishment The increase will in turn drive prices to rise rapidly.
Guo Sheng Securities analysis pointed out that the vitamin industry is expected to usher in a longer period of prosperity cycle under the background of public health events, and the impact of subsequent supply is expected to continue to push up the price of vitamins.
Zhang Lichao believes that the future vitamin prices will still depend on the development of global public health events. In the short term, prices still have room to continue to rise, and it is expected to maintain tight supply and demand during the year. The profits of vitamin raw material production enterprises, especially leading enterprises, will increase substantially. However, for the vitamin health care products and pharmaceutical industries, there is a long transition period from the price increase of raw materials to the price increase of finished medicines. Even if the price of finished products rises, it will often be lower than the increase of raw materials. Therefore, the impact on the performance of relevant listed companies also depends on the fundamentals of the subsequent market and the supply and demand.
