Under the continuous positive effect brought by China's production increase, the price of European Coal Futures due next year continued to weaken, significantly alleviating the difficult situation of soaring local energy prices. After China's national development and Reform Commission announced in October that the daily output of coal increased by 1.2 million tons compared with that in September, ice European benchmark coal futures, which hit a high of $193 / metric ton in early October, fell by more than 50%, of which the decline reached 24% in the past week, just like the trend of China's domestic futures market earlier

[golden review] driven by China's successive strong energy policies, the European energy crisis also showed signs of easing, and the European coal futures fell below the key price of US $100. On October 27, Putin instructed Russian state-owned natural gas producers to increase their natural gas inventories in Europe. As soon as the news spread, the natural gas price fell. The Dutch TTF natural gas futures price fell by 4.4% compared with the previous day, and the European natural gas price fell by 26% that week.

Due to the substitutability between natural gas and crude oil, the shortage of natural gas has also triggered a crude oil supply crisis. At present, the global crude oil supply can not meet the growth rate after the epidemic prevention and control is alleviated. The reasons are mainly in the following three aspects. First, from the end of August to most of September, hurricane IDA in the Gulf of Mexico limited the oil production of U.S. offshore oil fields in the Gulf of Mexico. Because the platforms operated by shell will remain under maintenance until the end of 2021, the company's production in the offshore oil field in the Gulf of Mexico will not return to full capacity until the beginning of next year.

Secondly, OPEC + continued to maintain market tension, with only 400000 barrels of crude oil per day increased every month since August this year. Although the United States and other consumer countries called on OPEC to fully produce and control high oil prices, although the energy crisis forced utility companies to start oil fuel power generation when natural gas prices hit an all-time high, which boosted the demand for oil products.

However, OPEC + leaders pointed out that the market is expected to oversupply next year. When deciding to change the decision to increase the daily output of 400000 barrels of crude oil per month, it is necessary to observe the situation in the next two months. Saudi energy minister Prince Salman basically ruled out the option of the production reduction alliance to deal with the rise in oil prices by increasing more supply than planned. He said: "our eyes should be far beyond the tip of our nose, because if you don't do so and take into account the output in 2022, there will eventually be a large backlog of inventory by the end of 2022."

Although this year's global oil demand has not yet returned to the state before last year's pandemic, the international oil price has increased by more than 30% compared with that before the pandemic. The sharp rise in oil prices in recent months is not due to the serious imbalance between supply and demand, but related to the panic surge in international natural gas prices. The sharp rise in natural gas prices is due to the fear that the winter climate is unusually cold and there is a shortage of heating fuel. In view of the fact that the price of natural gas is much higher than the price ratio of crude oil, some power plants have replaced natural gas with fuel for power generation.

However, in November, the climate in the northern hemisphere did not seem as cold as originally expected, so European natural gas prices began to fall sharply. Reflecting the balance between supply and demand of natural gas in the European market, the price of NBP natural gas futures on the London Intercontinental Exchange has continued to fall to 165.98 pence per gram card from the record high of 280 pence per gram card set on October 5.

European and American natural gas has continued to fall from its historical peak. How long can the seven-year high of international oil prices last? From past experience, every time the international oil price rises abnormally (the rise range is inconsistent with the proportion of supply and demand gap), there will be a sharp decline that makes investors uncomfortable, and this round of sharp decline in oil price may not be far away from us.